耶鲁大学斯蒂芬•罗奇:我为何说中国经济2020年将强势反弹?

斯蒂芬•罗奇是耶鲁大学杰克逊全球事务学院高级研究员,曾任摩根士丹利亚洲区主席和首席经济学家。他长期研究中国经济,以及亚洲经济对全球的影响,他的观点很大程度上影响了中美等多国的政策讨论。

在2003年非典期间,罗奇就在中国,亲历了这段对每一个中国人都记忆犹新的特殊时期。近日,就新冠肺炎对中国经济的影响,罗奇接受了《北京周报》记者专访,并认为,现在中国经济在世界上具有比2003年更为举足轻重的作用。

Beijing Review: In recent interviews with Chinese media outlets, you expressed optimism on the prospects of the Chinese economy and estimated a sharp rebound once the virus is under control. Where do you think the resilience of the Chinese economy comes from?

《北京周报》:近期您曾预测,在疫情得到控制后,中国经济将强势反弹。您认为中国经济的韧性来自哪里?

Stephen Roach: While the Chinese economy has slowed to a virtual standstill in early 2020 due to the impacts of COVID-19, this devastating disease should not impair the underlying strength of the Chinese economy. In my opinion, that strength reflects four key economic transitions: from investment- and export-led growth to consumer-driven growth; from manufacturing to services; from surplus saving to saving absorption and using that drawdown of domestic saving to fund China’s social safety net and boost discretionary household consumption; and from imported to indigenous innovation.

斯蒂芬•罗奇:不可否认,在2020年初受到新型冠状病毒肺炎的影响下,中国经济基本陷入停滞。但此次疫情不会削弱中国经济的内生动力。我认为,这种强劲的势头主要是中国正在实现四个关键的经济转型:从投资和出口拉动型增长转向消费拉动型增长;从制造业转向服务业;从储蓄过剩转向储蓄吸收——国内储蓄水平的下降实际上为中国的社会保障体系提供了大量资金,可自由支配的家庭消费不断增长;第四,从引进创新到自主创新。

As long as the government continues to focus its reform strategy on these key transitions, once the virus runs its course, which remains my strong expectation for the second half of 2020, these transitions, in conjunction with recent stimulus actions by the People’s Bank of China (PBC), will play a decisive role in providing a strong post-virus impetus to the Chinese economy.

只要政府继续将改革措施聚焦于这些关键领域的转型,一旦疫情结束,我坚定的认为,这些转型,结合最近中国人民银行的刺激措施,将在疫情结束后对中国下半年经济的恢复起到决定性作用。

You were in China during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. What are the differences in the Chinese economy today? Is it more resilient or more vulnerable?

2003年SARS期间您在中国。和当时相比,现在的中国经济有何不同?是更有韧性了还是更脆弱了?

Compared to conditions prevailing in 2003, the Chinese economy today is far bigger, better balanced and more globally important. In renminbi terms, the Chinese GDP is about seven times its size 17 years ago. Its share of the world GDP, as measured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s purchasing power parity metric, currently stands at 19.7 percent, fully 2.3 times the 8.7 percent share in 2003. At the same time, it is less dependent on manufacturing, as the secondary share of the Chinese GDP fell from 45.6 percent in 2003 to 40.7 percent in 2018, while a surging service sector boosted the tertiary share of the economy by 10 percentage points over the same 17-year interval, from 42 percent in 2003 to 52 percent in 2018.

跟2003年时相比,现在的中国经济规模更大、发展更均衡,在国际上的地位也更重要。以人民币计算,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)是17年前的7倍左右。以国际货币基金组织(IMF)的购买力平价计算,中国占全球GDP的比重目前为19.7%,是2003年8.7%的2.3倍。与此同时,中国经济对制造业的依赖程度也有所下降,第二产业占GDP的比重由2003年的45.6%下降到2018年的40.7%,而17年间,服务业的蓬勃发展也将第三产业占GDP的比重提高了10个百分点,由2003年的42%提高到2018年的52%。

With the broader world economy mired in an unusually anemic post-crisis recovery since the global financial crisis of 2008, China’s ongoing growth has accounted for fully 37 percent of the cumulative gains in global output since 2008. Notwithstanding the serious short-term disruptions associated with COVID-19, today’s rebalanced Chinese economy is far more resilient than it was back in the SARS days of 2003. At the same time, with the world far more dependent on China today than it was back then, short-term disruptions in the Chinese economy are bound to have a more serious impact on global growth. When China sneezes, today’s world is far more at risk of catching a bad cold than it was in 2003.

自2008年全球金融危机以来,在世界经济普遍陷入危机后复苏异常乏力的困境时,中国经济持续保持增长,已占全球总产出增长的37%。尽管受新型冠状病毒肺炎的影响短期内会出现一定波动,但发展更为均衡的中国经济远比2003年SARS时期更具弹性。与此同时,由于当今世界对中国的依赖程度远超当年,中国经济的短期波动势必会对全球经济增长产生更严重的影响。当中国打喷嚏时,当今世界患重感冒的风险要远高于2003年。

What kind of measures do you think the government could take to facilitate an economic rebound?

您认为政府可以采取哪些措施来推动经济回暖?

At this point in time, the highest priority for government policy must be virus containment, addressing modern China’s most serious public health emergency. The economy comes second, and fortunately for China it is strong enough to endure even this serious shock.

此时,政策的首要任务必须是遏制疫情,应对现代中国最严重的公共卫生突发事件,经济排在第二位。幸运的是,中国经济足够强大,完全能够承受如此严重的冲击。

There is, of course, very little that traditional countercyclical policy measures—monetary and fiscal, alike—can do to offset the severe economic pressures associated with quarantines and travel restrictions. The actions taken thus far by the PBC are important to stabilize financial markets in the event of another sharp drop such as that which occurred on February 3. Barring that possibility, stimulus should add fuel to any post-virus rebound in the economy.

当然,传统的逆周期调节措施,包括货币政策和财政政策等,在抵消由隔离措施和旅行限制带来的严重经济压力方面,收效甚微。中国人民银行迄今为止所采取的行动,对于稳定可能发生的新一轮暴跌的金融市场(类似2月3日发生的暴跌)具有重要意义。如果新一轮暴跌没有发生,那么刺激措施将有助于中国经济在疫情结束后复苏。

With the pre-virus Chinese economy having slowed to a 27-year low of 6 percent growth in late 2019, China’s policymakers are wise to err on the side of stimulus. At the same time, it would be imprudent to back away from the critical deleveraging campaign that has been such a high priority for the Chinese leadership over the past three and a half years. Once the virus is contained, the natural forces of recovery should take hold, comparable to those that occurred in the aftermath of SARS in 2003. By staying focused on public health imperatives and bringing COVID-19 under control as soon as possible, the Chinese economy should be well positioned for a solid rebound in the second half of 2020.

疫情爆发前,中国经济的增速在2019年底滑落至27年来的最低点6%,此时中国的决策层选择刺激政策是明智的。但是,如果此时取消去杠杆措施将是不明智的。过去三年半来,去杠杆化一直是中国领导层的首要任务之一。一旦疫情得到控制,经济复苏的自然力量应该就会形成,就像2003年SARS之后的情况那样。通过持续关注公共卫生需求并尽快控制住新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,中国经济将在2020年下半年出现比较稳固的反弹。

What impact do you think this outbreak will have on the global economy? How would a Chinese rebound help the world economy?

您认为这次疫情爆发会对全球经济产生什么影响?中国经济的反弹将如何提升世界经济?

With China accounting for about 20 percent of the global GDP, a two-percentage-point shortfall in annualized Chinese GDP growth—a distinct possibility in the first half of 2020—could knock approximately 0.5 percentage point off annualized world GDP growth during the first and second quarters of 2020. That could be problematic for a global economy that has already slowed into the danger zone; indeed, world GDP grew by just 2.9 percent in 2019, according to the IMF’s January 20, 2020 update, only 0.4 percentage point above the widely accepted 2.5 percent global recession threshold.

中国的GDP约占全球总量的20%。如果中国的GDP增速减缓2个百分点(2020年上半年很可能会出现这种情况),那么在2020年第一和第二季度,全球GDP增速将下降约0.5个百分点。对于已经处于增速危险区的全球经济来说,这就可能有问题了。事实上,根据国际货币基金组织1月20日发布的2020年最新数据,2019年全球GDP增速只有2.9%,仅比大家普遍认可的2.5%的全球衰退阈值高了0.4个百分点。

With European industrial output beginning to weaken late last year and with the Japanese economy contracting much more sharply than expected in the final period of 2019 due largely to the second installment of the consumption tax hike, the global economy was not exactly on firm footing before the sharp disruption to the Chinese economy. All this means that COVID-19, together with its collateral impacts on neighboring countries through supply-chain and finished goods trade linkages, could heighten financial market fears of global recession during the first half of 2020.

欧洲工业产值自去年底开始走弱。同时,由于消费税再次上调,日本经济在2019年最后几个月的收缩幅度也远超预期。也就是说,在中国经济出现波折之前全球经济还没有完全站稳脚跟。所有这些都意味着,新型冠状病毒肺炎及其通过供应链和成品贸易联系而对邻国产生的间接影响,可能会加剧金融市场对2020年上半年全球经济衰退的担忧。

What is your perspective on the long-term prospects of the Chinese economy? Do you think this public health emergency will lead to the “middle-income trap” for the country? China’s per-capita GDP just passed the benchmark of $10,000 in 2019. What do you think are the new growth drivers that could help China overcome the “middle-income trap?”

您如何看待中国经济的长期前景?您是否认为此次突发公共卫生事件会导致中国陷入“中等收入陷阱”?中国的人均GDP刚刚在2019年突破一万美元大关。您认为哪些新动能将有助于中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”?

China faces many challenges in its daunting aspirations to push ahead on its twin centenary development goals. The integrity of its public health system is necessary but not sufficient for China to stay the course. It underscores the safety net constraint that has long encouraged fear-driven precautionary saving by Chinese households, thereby inhibiting more vigorous growth in discretionary personal consumption.

要实现“两个一百年”的宏伟目标,中国面临着诸多挑战。完整的公共卫生体系是必要的,但还不够。它凸显了中国社会保障网的局限性,长期以来中国家庭都是出于恐惧而进行预防性储蓄,从而抑制了可自由支配的个人消费的强劲增长。

The middle-income trap is less about disease control and public health and more about the critical shift from imported to indigenous innovation. This, of course, has become a major area of dispute in the trade conflict with the United States, which strikes at the heart of many of China’s most important pillars of technological prowess: intellectual property rights, technology transfer, cyber security and access by China’s leading technology companies such as Huawei and ZTE to critical U.S.-made components such as semiconductor chips.

中等收入陷阱与疾病控制和公共卫生的关系不大,而与从引进创新到自主创新的转型关系更大。当然,这一点已经成为中美贸易冲突的主要争议领域,也打击了中国众多的核心技术支柱产业:知识产权、技术转让、网络安全,以及华为、中兴等中国领先科技企业获得半导体芯片等美国制造的关键零部件的许可。

The conflict with the United States has been an obvious and important wakeup call for China’s aims to build a self-sustaining culture of indigenous innovation. There are many encouraging signs of extraordinary progress in achieving this objective over the past several years, especially in key applications industries such as e-commerce, fintech, life sciences and, of course, artificial intelligence. The outbreak of COVID-19 is a grim reminder that technological prowess is not an end in and of itself. If China seizes the opportunity to convert newfound prowess in indigenous innovation into a higher-quality growth experience, complete with a state-of-the art public health system, it will be much better positioned to avoid the long-feared setbacks of the so-called “middle-income trap.”

与美国的贸易冲突显然是对中国建立自主创新文化的重要警示。过去几年,中国在实现这一目标方面取得了许多令人鼓舞的非凡进展,尤其是在电子商务、金融科技、生命科学,当然还有人工智能等关键应用领域。新型冠状病毒肺炎的爆发向人们发出了残酷的警醒:技术实力本身并不是目的。如果中国能抓住机会,将自主创新形成的新实力转化为更高质量的经济增长,并建成最先进的公共卫生体系,那么它就能更好地避免人们长期担心的所谓“中等收入陷阱”带来的挫折。

责任编辑:刘云云
采  写:于淑均
翻  译:王 君
设计排版:卢一凡
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